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@ryanc @nf3xn

Good USB-C endurance is 10,000 cycles.

Cheap endurance testers for NEMA 5-15P have a counter that goes to 999999. Expensive ones go another digit.

@dashdsrdash @ryanc @nf3xn is that more or less than a standard AC wall socket?

@Zeugs @ryanc @nf3xn

NEMA is the US standard, 5-15P is the 3 conductor 15A plug side that 90% of the appliances you can buy use, 5-15R is the wall outlet side that 90% of the walls will have. The exceptions are mostly 220/240V outlets and plugs for large air conditioners, electric dryers and such.

Very old houses will have ungrounded 2 conductor plugs; some appliances use ungrounded 2 conductor plugs that work in NEMA 5-15R.

@Zeugs @ryanc @nf3xn

I checked the DE standard, and I'm a little surprised to see manufacturers boasting about 20,000 insertion cycle testing for type F / Schuko plugs. I would have guessed 500000 or more.

@dashdsrdash @ryanc @nf3xn
I could imagine that the plugging frequency could differ for USB.
20.000 is a bit more than two 2 plugging cycles per day for 25 years.
If you use it that much you should think about a good durable power converter in the wall.

@Zeugs @ryanc @nf3xn

I don't believe I have any devices which use USB A or C and will last 25 years.

I have several NEMA 5-15P devices that are more than 50 years old and still in reasonable condition...

but in any case, the question is what you should put into your walls. I wouldn't put USB in the wall; as @cstross said, we'll have a new standard every few years.

@dashdsrdash @ryanc @nf3xn @cstross
After 25 years. "Why was it called USB forever? " "Because it takes like forever to transfer data."

@cstross @dashdsrdash @ryanc @nf3xn If this forecast is right we would have to rewire everything. 3.6kw max for most households. Also the cable must be very much thicker if they stay with 5 volts. Results in 2.000 ampere.

Will we need the bandwidth... We will see. But with Moore's law ending this could be a bit too much to compute.

@Zeugs @dashdsrdash @ryanc @nf3xn This is a classic example of why linear extrapolation usually fails!

(10kW is more than enough power to run every appliance in a house except the heating/air conditioning. And 100 Tbit/sec is probably excessive by a similar margin. Look back 50 years before USB and we didn’t even have/need data cabling in the modern sense … it was 1943 and 50 baud Telex over PSTN was the new hotness!)

@cstross @Zeugs @ryanc @nf3xn

In 2016, I estimated that per-person bandwidth demand caps at about half a terabit per second.

Estimation method here: https://blog.randomstring.org/2016/02/26/more-bandwidth-please/

@dashdsrdash @cstross @ryanc @nf3xn
100+ people multiplayer ? You want another cable for that? It's 2073!

@Zeugs @cstross @ryanc @nf3xn

If they are all in the same building, you get significant improvements by running a local server.

@dashdsrdash @cstross @ryanc @nf3xn In 2073 ... Do they still have servers, the cloud or local servers? Maybe miniature kubernetes clusters in synthetic computation fluids Running your house.
Or they just use brain tissue based ML models for everything because all programming knowledge was lost.

@Zeugs @cstross @ryanc @nf3xn

There are still five thousand sysadmins on Earth who know what they are doing, and fifty thousand programmers. And those numbers are fixed by law, to prevent repetition of the 21st Century Breakdown.

@dashdsrdash @cstross @ryanc @nf3xn will they have switched to IPV6 ?

@Zeugs @cstross @ryanc @nf3xn

Sure, why not. More than 50% of my house's external traffic is v6 already, it's not hard.